overshot is hot made in china

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In Overshot is Hot! Weaver’s magazine Editor Madelyn van der Hoogt presents the many articles and projects featuring overshot that appeared in Weaver’s and Prairie Wool Companion over a period of almost 20 years. During that time, overshot was transformed from a weave structure—used mostly for coverlets or placemat borders—into a contemporary, multicolor, multiuse pattern weave.

Innovative designers explore and apply variations and extensions of overshot drafting techniques and share their results on these pages. This book is your chance to have it all under one cover.

Our books are formatted in rich Portable Document Format (PDF)—which includes bookmarking, internal page links, and high-res images & charts so you can print pages if you wish. For best results, we recommend using Acrobat Reader (a free application from Adobe™) as a desktop application for viewing and printing. Acrobat Reader 6 or higher is required to take advantage of all the features listed above. This PDF can be transferred to your tablet with all of the same functionality when you use one of many apps (like iBooks in iOS).

This post may help explain how my needle pillow cloth was woven. These pieces were made on the same warp. I had made a dozen or so pillow fronts and backs (in plain weave or tabby). Then I got creative and played with ideas of what else could be woven on the same warp. This is a scroll I made. I used the fabric I wove on the needle pillow warp for the background. It measures 7 ¾” x 26” including fringe.

I wove some samples and decided to make this for my scroll. The warp was handspun singles from Bouton. I wanted to see if I could use this fragile cotton for a warp. I used a sizing for the first time in my weaving life. The pattern weft is silk and shows up nicely against the matt cotton.

Here is a piece with two samples. The I used silk chenille that I’ve been hording dyed with black walnuts. In one part I used the chenille as the pattern weft. It looks similar to the needle pillows except I used only 1 block. The tabby was black sewing thread, I believe. For the flat sample, I used the reverse: the chenille for the tabby weft and the sewing thread for the pattern weft. Again I only used one of the blocks.

For this sample I used all sewing thread (easier with only one shuttle.) Again I used only one block and the pattern and tabby wefts were sewing thread. I do love to try things.

This illustration and quote are in The Weaving Book by Helen Bress and is the only place I’ve seen this addressed. “Inadvertently, the tabby does another thing. It makes some pattern threads pair together and separates others. On the draw-down [draft], all pattern threads look equidistant from each other. Actually, within any block, the floats will often look more like this: [see illustration]. With some yarns and setts, this pairing is hardly noticeable. If you don’t like the way the floats are pairing, try changing the order of the tabby shots. …and be consistent when treadling mirror-imaged blocks.”

This entanglement limits the West’s ability to penalize Russian aggression financially. Yes, cutting Russia off from the global financial system would devastate the Russian economy and impose severe hardship on the Russian civilian population, but it would also force Europeans to slash their energy consumption.

Milder sanctions could protect Europe’s access to oil, coal, and gas, but their impact on the Russian government’s behavior would be commensurately smaller. The Putin regime has spent years acclimating Russians to material deprivation and it has also built up substantial financial buffers. Not for the first time, conservative macroeconomic and regulatory policies haveshielded a revisionist regime from international pressure.

There was nothing that Europeans could have done about the Russian government’s decision to impose severe costs on its civilian population for the sake of maintaining its own flexibility.But Europeans can and should be blamed for becomingeven morereliant on Russian fossil fuel exports since the 2014 invasion of Ukraine.They wasted nearly a decade when they could have been greening their economies and also increasing the security of their own neighborhood. Ukrainians—and others—will now have to live with the consequences.

The Russian government’sability to withstand financial pressure was hard-earned. Most obviously, total spending on imported goods and services (in U.S. dollar terms) has consistently been about 25-30% lower than it was before the first invasion of Ukraine. While some of this can be attributed to declines in the world prices of Russia’s oil and gas exports, Western sanctions and Russian domestic policies have also played a role.

The net effect is thatRussia’s central bank now has enough foreign exchange reserves ($630 billion as of last month) to cover 2021 spending on imports ($368 billion)plus75% of the country’sentirestock of foreign-currency denominated debt ($353 billion as of 2021Q3).

None of this, however, is sufficient to protect Russia from the impact of sustained Western sanctions.As the Taliban has discovered, foreign reserves are useless if your counterparties freeze your accounts. Even Russia’s $132 billion in gold reserves couldn’t be used to settle payments if Western banks were banned from touching anything involving Russia.

Either way,Gazprom’s network of pipelineswould have been transformed from a source of leverage into an albatross. Russia could have found other customers for its gas—most obviously China—but building the necessary transportation infrastructure to compensate for the loss of the European market would take years. Russian oil could be sold elsewhere more easily, but the prices would have to be lower if European demand disappeared.

At first glance, it almost looks as if that’s what happened. Russia’s total export revenues from oil and gas fell from $350 billion/year before the first invasion of Ukraine to $231 billion in 2019. While Russians made up the difference by increasing other exports, including food, the squeeze on energy revenues is real.

European demand for Russian crude oil and refined petroleum products was slightly lower in 2019 than in 2013, but this was offset by surging European demand for Russian coal, which now accounts for almosthalfof the EU’s coal imports. Put another way, the countries of the EU went fromconsuming about 62 exajoules of energyin 2013 to 61 exajoules in 2019, while Russia went from supplying 10 exajoules of that energy in 2013 to 11 exajoules in 2019.Despite a slight decline in fossil fuel demand,Russia’s share of the European energy mix rose from 16.5% to 18.5%after the invasion of Ukraine.Europe’s dependence will only increase ifthe Nord Stream 2 gas pipelinecomes onstream as planned.

The perverse result is that Europe is at greater risk ofRussianpressure than the other way around. Natural gas prices in Europeare now about 5-6 times as high as in the U.S.because Gazprom has been withholding supply and because the lack of LNG terminals has prevented ships from moving gas across the Atlantic.

And while Europeans have made some modest investments in solar and wind energy over the past decade, it hasn’t been nearly enough to make a dent in the overall energy mix, especially after factoring in the impact of the decisions to decommission existing nuclear power plants.

The Europeans seem to have—belatedly—realized the implications of all this. As EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyenput it on Tuesday:This crisis shows that Europe is still too dependent on Russian gas. We have to diversify our supplies…We will have to massively invest in renewable energy…because this is a strategic investment in our energy independence.

Overshot glass had its origin in 16th century Venice, and the ability to make this ware eventually spread to Bohemia, Spain and elsewhere in Europe. Sometime prior to 1800, the production of this glass seems to have stopped. The Englishman Apsley Pellatt, owner of the Falcon Glass Works, is credited with reviving this decorative technique around 1845-1850. He acknowledged the origin of the technique by calling his product "Venetian Frosted Glass" or "Anglo-Venetian Glass". Later it would be called by other names, such as Frosted Glassware, ice Glass or Craquelle Glass.

It is important to understand the difference between crackle glass and overshot glass. Two different processes were involved. Crackle glass was produced by dipping a partially blown gob of hot glass in cold water. The sudden temperature change caused fissures or cracks in the glass surface. The gob was then lightly reheated and blown to its full shape. The blowing process enlarged the spaces between fissures to create a labyrinth of channels in varying widths. When cooled in the annealing lehr, the surface of the finished object had a crackled or cracked-ice effect.

Overshot glass was made by rolling a partially or fully inflated gob of hot glass on finely ground shards of glass that had been placed on a steel plate called a marver. The gob was then lightly reheated to remove the sharp edges of the ground glass.

Many years ago, I finally got to try weaving. I took the Beginning to Weave workshop through the Ottawa guild. At that time, 1989, the OVWSG did not have a studio space to house what guild equipment we had acquired. (The Guild had an old second-hand 100 inch loom and 6 or 7 table looms. There may have been a floor loom too but I was distracted by the 100 inches of loom, so do not remember). All the looms lived in one of our guild members’ very big basements. On weekends, she either taught weaving workshops or hosted weavers working on the 100 inch loom. It sounded like a busy basement! I remember 4 weekends of driving to a little town just east of Ottawa. I took the table loom home each week to do homework. I still remember the sound of the mettle heddles rattling as I drove down the highway, back and forth to the classes. Then I think there were two more weekends of Intermediate weaving and Dona sent me off and I was weaving!

It all starts with yarn, wind it carefully, attach it to the back beam, wind on, thread the heddles, slay the reed, tie on to the front beam, check the tension and then start to weave. It sounds like a lot of work but it is all worth it as you start to pass the shuttle through the shed and the cloth begins to appear. Weaving was like Magic! From a pile of string to POOF, actual cloth!!!

During the workshop, I found pickup seemed strangely familiar as my brain watched my fingers happily lifting and twisting threads for the various lace and decorative weave patterns. The other thing that my brain went “ooh this is cool!” was Overshot. It is a weave structure that requires a ground and a pattern thread, (two shuttles). One is fine like the warp and the pattern thread is thicker and usually wool. I was still reacting to wool so I used cotton for both.  My original goal was to draft and weave a Viking textile for myself but I put that aside for a moment, I will get back to that later.

The first thing I wove after my instruction was a present for my Mom. she had requested fabric to make a vest. I looked through A Handweaver’s Pattern Bookby Marguerite Porter Davison and found an overshot pattern that I thought we both would like. I wove it in two shades of blue (Mom’s favourite colour), at a looser thread count than usual. (Originally the overshot weave structure was used to make coverlets, so were tightly woven and a bit stiff, while I liked the pattern I wanted the fabric to be much more drapey.) Even worse, I did not want it to be as hard-edged in the pattern as it was originally intended so I tried a slub cotton as a test and loved it.

So, for any sane weaver, it was all wrong! Wrong set, wrong fibre, wrong colour choices! It was fabulous and perfect. I kept the sample as a basket cover and at either the end of 1989 or the beginning of 1990, I gave Mom the yardage for her vest. “Oh this is too nice to cut” Mom Said, so it lived on the back of her favourite reading chair as a headrest until her most recent move (2015?) it never did get to be a vest but it has been well enjoyed.

My sample piece, which became my main demo basket cover, has been in the background of many demo photos. This year it was used as an Old example in part of the guild Exhibition. You can see the subtle distortion of the pattern when a slub yarn is used.

In the Exhibition The Inkle band, hanging beside the overshot, I wove much more recently. I used an Inkle loom and a supplemental warp thread. This means weaving with an extra separate thread that was not part of the main warp on the loom.  I used a yarn with a fuzzy caterpillar-like slub.

You may be able to see how I wove the weird slubby supplemental warp. The yarn is weighted and left hanging over the back peg of the Inkle loom. It comes over the top peg (usually labelled B in diagrams) and floats above the weaving.  In the areas where the Caterpillar (Slub) is not present I catch the yarn with the shuttle and weave it into the band. In the area the caterpillar appears I would leave the yarn above the warp and then start weaving it in again as I reached the end of the caterpillar. I hope that explanation doesn’t sound like mud and makes a bit of sense. Using a supplemental warp on an Inkle loom is not quite normal but it is a lot of fun.

I was going to tell you about my original goal in learning to weave, the mysterious Fragment #10 from a Viking excavation from around the year 1000, but  I have likely confused you with weaving enough for one day. So I will save that for another chat. (don’t forget the Inkle loom I would like to tell you a bit more about that in another post too. I promise I will get back to felting in the not-too-distant future)

This book takes the weaver out of the traditional method of weaving overshot patterns by using different treadling techniques. This will include weaving overshot patterns as summer/winter, Italian manner, starburst, crackle, and petit point just to name a few. The basic image is maintained in each example but the design takes on a whole new look.

Step out of the weaving comfort zone and experiment with something new! Weave structures often have specific threading and treadling patterns that are unique to that particular weave structure and not shared with others. This book takes you out of the traditional method of weaving overshot patterns by using different treadling techniques. This will include weaving overshot patterns as Summer/Winter, Italian manner, starburst, crackle, and petit point just to name a few. The basic image is maintained in each example but the design takes on a whole new look! Each chapter walks you through the setup for each method and includes projects with complete drafts and instructions so it’s easy to start weaving and watch the magic happen! Try the patterns for scarves, table runners, shawls, pillows and even some upholstered pieces. Once you"ve tried a few projects, you"ll be able to apply what you"ve learned to any piece you desire!

All the information, data and documents are provided by ETCN only for your reference. ETCN promises to collect and edit them in due care but shall not be liable for their correction and accuracy. In case of any discrepancy, official versions and interpretations shall prevail.

Thanksgiving is coming soon but there’s plenty of timeto get some weaving projects finished before it’s here. Whether you’re hosting Thanksgiving or going to visit loved ones here’s a list of the top five weaving projects for Thanksgiving.

Pot holder, hot pads, trivets—whichever you prefer, these tools are all indispensable when making Thanksgiving dinner. They keep your hands protected as you pull trays from the oven and keep your table safe from extra hot casserole dishes. Weaving your own means you can make them to fit your hands, insulate them as much as you want (you can buy heat-proof oven mitt liner at sewing and craft stores), and, of course, design them to match your décor. So as you place a steaming platter on the table your guests will ooh and aah as much over the hot pads as the food. Try these 4-shaft overshot pot holders by Jean Korus. The classic overshot weaving designs are perfect for Thanksgiving.

Letting somebody else do the cooking this year? What better way to say thank you than bringing them a bottle of wine or lovely sparkling water in a thoughtful handwoven bag such as the 6-shaft Hail to the Hostess bags by Susan E. Horton. They’re absolutely beautiful and thoroughly useful even after the initial bottle has been consumed. They’re also a good project for learning how to weave a bag because they’re so simple to sew (you can see the instructions here)—you might end up finding reasons to give away bottles just so you can make more!

Some people claim the centerpiece of any Thanksgiving dinner is the turkey. I think it’s the handwoven table runner. You can design your own to match your china, to coordinate perfectly with the roasted butternut squash and Brussels sprouts, or to stand out and steal the show from everything else. If you need some inspiration I’m a big fan of the Autumn Fire Runner. It’s beautiful 8-shaft runner pattern that’s easy to wash and has just enough shimmer and shine to impress your guests.

I saved these for last because they are the most important textile tool in your kitchen at Thanksgiving or any time of year. You can use towels to maneuver hot pots on the stove, line bread baskets, wipe flour off your hands, clean up spilled gravy, and to carry a perfectly beautiful apple pie to the table. Handwoven towels are more than functional, however, they’re also beautiful. Weave up a set to match your hosting apron (not the one you actual dirty when cooking) to break out when you get everything on the table. You can also use a towel as a table runner in a pinch. Best of all towels are so great fun to weave! Right now I’m very much in love with the Discovery Towels by Karen Isenhower. Woven from Bockens cotton, these towels look complicated but are really a clever take on plain weave. What’s not to love?

Whether you’re already deep into planning your Thanksgiving weaving or needed some inspiration I hope this list inspires you. If you’re already planning napkins put on some extra warp to weave up a towel or two. Making a runner? I bet the fabric would also be perfect for a bottle bag. And of course, if you have even a short amount of extra warp it’s easy enough to sew up a quick hot pad or trivet. Whatever you do, I bet it will be wonderful.

In economics, hot money is the flow of funds (or capital) from one country to another in order to earn a short-term profit on interest rate differences and/or anticipated exchange rate shifts. These speculative capital flows are called "hot money" because they can move very quickly in and out of markets, potentially leading to market instability.

The following simple example illustrates the phenomenon of hot money: In the beginning of 2011, the national average rate of one year certificate of deposit in the United States is 0.95%. In contrast, China"s benchmark one year deposit rate is 3%. The Chinese currency (renminbi) is seriously undervalued against the world"s major trading currencies and therefore is likely to appreciate against the US dollar in the coming years. Given this situation, if an investor in the US deposits his or her money in a Chinese bank, the investor would get a higher return than if he or she deposits money in a US bank. This makes China a prime target for hot money inflows. This is just an example for illustration. In reality, hot money takes many different forms of investment.

The following description may help further illustrate this phenomenon: "One country or sector in the world economy experiences a financial crisis; capital flows out in a panic; investors seek a more attractive destination for their money. In the next destination, capital inflows create a boom that is accompanied by rising indebtedness, rising asset prices and booming consumption - for a time. But all too often, these capital inflows are followed by another crisis. Some commentators describe these patterns of capital flow as "hot money" that flows from one sector or country to the next and leaves behind a trail of destruction."

The types of capital in the above categories share common characteristics: the investment horizon is short, and they can come in quickly and leave quickly.

There is no well-defined method for estimating the amount of hot money flowing into a country during a period of time, because hot money flows quickly and is poorly monitored. In addition, once an estimate is made, the amount of hot money may suddenly rise or fall, depending on the economic conditions driving the flow of funds. One common way of approximating the flow of hot money is to subtract a nation’s trade surplus (or deficit) and its net flow of foreign direct investment (FDI) from the change in the nation"s foreign reserves.

Hot money usually originates from the capital-rich, developed countries that have lower GDP growth rate and lower interest rates compared to the GDP growth rate and interest rate of emerging market economies such as India, Brazil, China, Turkey, Malaysia etc. Although the specific causes of hot money flow are somewhat different from period to period, generally, the following could be considered as the causes of hot money flow:

Emerging market countries began to adopt sound monetary and fiscal policies as well as market-oriented reforms including trade and capital market liberalization. Such policy reforms, among others, have resulted in a credible increase in the rate of return on investments.

As described above, hot money can be in different forms. Hedge funds, other portfolio investment funds and international borrowing of domestic financial institutions are generally considered as the vehicles of hot money. In the 1997 East Asian Financial Crisis and in the 1998 Russian Financial Crisis, the hot money chiefly came from banks, not portfolio investors.

However, large and sudden inflows of capital with a short term investment horizon have negative macroeconomic effects, including rapid monetary expansion, inflationary pressures, real exchange rate appreciation and widening current account deficits. Especially, when capital flows in volume into small and shallow local financial markets, the exchange rate tends to appreciate, asset prices rally and local commodity prices boom. These favorable asset price movements improve national fiscal indicators and encourage domestic credit expansion. These, in turn, exacerbate structural weakness in the domestic bank sector. When global investors" sentiment on emerging markets shift, the flows reverse and asset prices give back their gains, often forcing a painful adjustment on the economy.

Inflow of massive capital with short investment horizon (hot money) could cause asset prices to rallyinflation to rise. The sudden inflow of large amounts of foreign money would increase the monetary base of the receiving country (if the central bank is pegging the currency), which would help create a credit boom. This, in turn, would result in such a situation in which "too much money chases too few goods". The consequences of this would be inflation.

Furthermore, hot money could lead to exchange rate appreciation or even cause exchange rate overshooting. And if this exchange rate appreciation persists, it would hurt the competitiveness of the respective country"s export sector by making the country"s exports more expensive compared to similar foreign goods and services.

Sudden outflow of hot money, which would always certainly happen, would deflate asset prices and could cause the collapse value of the currency of respective country. This is especially so in countries with relatively scarce internationally liquid assets. There is growing agreement that this was the case in the 1997 East Asian Financial Crisis. In the run-up to the crises, firms and private firms in South Korea, Thailand and Indonesia accumulated large amounts of short-term foreign debt (a type of hot money). The three countries shared a common characteristic of having large ratio of short term foreign debt to international reserves. When the capital started to flow out, it caused a collapse in asset prices and exchange rates. The financial panic fed on itself, causing foreign creditors to call in loans and depositors to withdraw funds from banks. All of these magnified the illiquidity of the domestic financial system and forced yet another round of costly asset liquidations and price deflation. In all of the three countries, the domestic financial institutions came to the brink of default on their external short term obligations.

However, some economists and financial experts argue that hot money could also play positive role in countries that have relatively low level of foreign exchange reserves, because the capital inflow may present a useful opportunity for those countries to augment their central banks" reserve holdings.

Generally speaking, given their relatively high interest rates compared with that of the developed market economies, emerging market economies are the destination of hot money. Although the emerging market countries welcome capital inflows such as foreign direct investment, because of hot money"s negative effects on the economy, they are instituting policies to stop hot money from coming into their country in order to eliminate the negative consequences.

Exchange rate appreciation: the exchange rate can be used as a tool to control the inflow of hot money. If the currency is believed to be undervalued, that would be a cause of hot money inflow. In such circumstance, economists usually suggest a significant one-off appreciation rather than a gradual move in the exchange rate, as a gradual appreciation of the exchange rate would attract even more hot money into the country. One downside of this approach is that exchange rate appreciation would reduce the competitiveness of the export sector.

Interest rate reduction: countries that adopt this policy would lower their central bank"s benchmark interest rates to reduce the incentive for inflow. For example, on December 16, 2010, the Turkish Central Bank surprised markets by cutting interest rates at a time of rising inflation and relatively high economic growth. Erdem Basci, deputy bank governor of Turkish Central Bank argued that gradual rate cuts were the best way to prevent excessive capital inflows fuelling asset bubbles and currency appreciation.

Increasing bank reserve requirements and sterilization: some countries pursue a fixed exchange rate policy. In the face of large net capital inflow, those countries would intervene in the foreign exchange market to prevent exchange rate appreciation. Then sterilize the monetary impact of intervention through open market operations and through increasing bank reserves requirements.US dollars and buy Chinese yuan in the foreign exchange market. This would put upward pressure on the value of the yuan. In order to prevent the appreciation of the Chinese currency, the central bank of China print yuan to buy US dollars. This would increase money supply in China, which would in turn cause inflation. Then, the central bank of China has to increase bank reserve requirements or issue Chinese government bonds to bring back the money that it has previously released into the market in the exchange rate intervention operation. However, like other approaches, this approach has limitations. The first, the central bank can"t keep increasing bank reserves, because doing so would negatively affect bank"s profitability. The second, in the emerging market economies, the domestic financial market is not deep enough for open market operations to be effective.

Fiscal tightening: the idea is to use fiscal restraint, especially in the form of spending cuts on nontradables, so as to lower aggregate demand and curb the inflationary impact of capital inflow.

On the demand side, the Ecological Footprint adds up all the productive areas for which a population, a person or a product competes. It measures the ecological assets that a given population or product requires to produce the natural resources it consumes (including plant-based food and fiber products, livestock and fish products, timber and other forest products, space for urban infrastructure) and to absorb its waste, especially carbon emissions.

The Ecological Footprint tracks the use of productive surface areas. Typically these areas are: cropland, grazing land, fishing grounds, built-up land, forest area, and carbon demand on land.

On the supply side, a city, state or nation’s biocapacity represents the productivity of its ecological assets (including cropland, grazing land, forest land, fishing grounds, and built-up land). These areas, especially if left unharvested, can also serve to absorb the waste we generate, especially our carbon emissions from burning fossil fuel.

If a population’s Ecological Footprint exceeds the region’s biocapacity, that region runs a biocapacity deficit. Its demand for the goods and services that its land and seas can provide—fruits and vegetables, meat, fish, wood, cotton for clothing, and carbon dioxide absorption—exceeds what the region’s ecosystems can regenerate. In more popular communications, we also call this “an ecological deficit.” A region in ecological deficit meets demand by importing, liquidating its own ecological assets (such as overfishing), and/or emitting carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. If a region’s biocapacity exceeds its Ecological Footprint, it has a biocapacity reserve.

Conceived in 1990 by Mathis Wackernagel and William Rees at the University of British Columbia, the Ecological Footprint launched the broader Footprint movement, including the carbon Footprint, and is now widely used by scientists, businesses, governments, individuals, and institutions working to monitor ecological resource use and advance sustainable development. The most prominent calculations are those produced for countries. We call those the National Footprint and Biocapacity Accounts.

A rich and accessible introduction to the theory and practice of the approach is available in the book Ecological Footprint: Managing Our Biocapacity Budget (2019). The European Commission provides a short summary here. Fuller methodological explanations and applications to national policy are available in a Nature Sustainability paper (2021), an two MDPI papers, one on the national accounts method, and the other one on its implications.

Globally, stocks have posted strong gains this year after a torrid 2022, based on expectations that inflation is close to peaking and the rise in U.S. interest rates will taper off. The dismantling of COVID controls in China and the re-opening of its borders have further boosted investor sentiment.

"The market continues to price for a dream scenario of inflation having peaked then coming down sharply, but not overshooting to the downside; only the very mildest of recessions by any historical standards," Rabobank"s global strategist Michael Every said in a report.

Australian equity markets fell 0.3% on Wednesday after a shock surge in inflation to a 33-year high in the last quarter of 2022 reinforced the case for the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep raising interest rates.

U.S. crude oil prices were stable at $80.3 a barrel after falling in the previous session as preliminary data indicated a bigger than expected rise in U.S. oil inventories.

As shown in Fig. 1, most of the OPFs in northeast China are found in June, July, and August (JJA). The 203 cases in three summer seasons provide a decent sample size to investigate overshooting convection under different synoptic conditions over this region. To characterize the meteorological environment favorable to support deep convection, the composite large-scale environments at different levels are analyzed for each category.

It is well known that there is usually synoptic-scale ascent ahead of a trough and, therefore, a favored area for convective forcing. Figure 4 shows the composite geopotential heights, wind vectors, and relative (specific) humidity at different pressure levels for 81 trough-type OPFs. These synoptic conditions are composited within the fixed region of interest, regardless of the characteristics and locations of OPFs. The composite fields show a clear trough from the upper to the lower troposphere. A weak trough accompanying a westerly jet at 300 hPa is found in the domain region (Fig. 4a). At 500 hPa, the trough is found farther to the east, and the midlevel troposphere is relatively dry (Fig. 4b). At 700 hPa, the trough is found farther to the east and deeper, which might be related to the orography. Under certain conditions, orography (see Fig. 7) could affect the orientation and intensity of the trough (Carlson 1961; Steenburgh and Mass 1994). The moist air at low levels is an important factor for deep convection to develop. At 850 hPa, moisture transport from the south of China and the Yellow Sea to the studied region is evident, with a southwesterly low-level jet at 850 hPa (Fig. 4d). Favorable conditions for deep convection are present when warm, moist air from the Yellow Sea is in association with the ascent east of a trough. A stable and relatively dry air layer from the west (Fig. 4b) capping the warm, moist air at low levels could provide a favorable condition for deep convection.

Composite wind vector, geopotential heights, and humidity at different levels for OPFs near a trough. (a) 300, (b) 500, (c) 700, and (d) 850 hPa. The color fills show the (a)–(c) relative and (d) specific humidity. Contours show the geopotential heights. The region of interest is shown with a black box.

Composite wind vector, geopotential heights, and humidity at different levels for OPFs near a trough. (a) 300, (b) 500, (c) 700, and (d) 850 hPa. The color fills show the (a)–(c) relative and (d) specific humidity. Contours show the geopotential heights. The region of interest is shown with a black box.

Composite wind vector, geopotential heights, and humidity at different levels for OPFs near a trough. (a) 300, (b) 500, (c) 700, and (d) 850 hPa. The color fills show the (a)–(c) relative and (d) specific humidity. Contours show the geopotential heights. The region of interest is shown with a black box.

Characterized by a local cold core and manifested as a closed cyclonic circulation in the mid- and upper troposphere developed from a deep trough in the westerlies (Palmén 1949; Palmén and Nagler 1949), a cutoff low is also an important midlatitude synoptic condition over northeast China (Zhang et al. 2008; Nieto et al. 2005). Cutoff lows are often associated with increased vertical wind shear, which in turn may affect the intensity of local afternoon convection (Wu 1976; Chen and Chi 1990). Sun (1997) proposed that the occurrence of the days affected by cutoff lows could be 42% in JJA. Figure 5 shows the composite synoptic condition for 58 OPFs under the cutoff low. By definition, a cutoff low over the examined region at 500 hPa is the dominant feature (Fig. 5b). These features, commonly known as upper- and midtropospheric features, may sometimes extend to the lower troposphere (Figs. 5c,d) (Nieto et al. 2005). Conditional instability occurs when warm, moist air at low levels comes beneath the cold low from the south or southwest, sometimes in the form of a low-level jet. The combined effects lead to an environment that is favorable for deep convection.

The third type of synoptic condition, in which 14 OPFs occur, is composited and shown in Fig. 6. In contrast with the trough, a weak ridge is found at the mid- and upper troposphere over the region (Figs. 6a–c). The westerly wind at the upper level shifts to southwesterly at 850 hPa (Fig. 6d). The moisture-laden low-level jet west of the ridge from the south of China and Bohai Sea is present at 850 hPa. At the midtroposphere, the air is relatively dry (Figs. 6b,c). In spite of the absence of large-scale lifting, a sufficient amount of humidity in the lower troposphere may still lead to the initiation of deep convection with a local forcing, such as topographic lifting. Unlike OPFs occurring under the trough and cutoff low conditions, OPFs under the ridge conditions are mostly found in June and July (Fig. 7c), coinciding with the mei-yu rainy season (e.g., Tao and Chen 1987; Ninomiya 1999; Sampe and Xie 2010). This indicates that the surface moisture from the mei-yu zone may play a role in the development of deep convection over this region.

Composite 10-m wind vector (m s−1) and locations of OPFs corresponding to each synoptic type: (a) trough, (b) cutoff low, and (c) ridge. The color fills show the topography of this region. The region of interest is shown with a black box.

Composite 10-m wind vector (m s−1) and locations of OPFs corresponding to each synoptic type: (a) trough, (b) cutoff low, and (c) ridge. The color fills show the topography of this region. The region of interest is shown with a black box.

Composite 10-m wind vector (m s−1) and locations of OPFs corresponding to each synoptic type: (a) trough, (b) cutoff low, and (c) ridge. The color fills show the topography of this region. The region of interest is shown with a black box.

All three types of OPFs share the characteristic of warm, moist air from the south capped by midlevel warm and dry air flowing over the high terrain from the west. This bears some similarities to other regions favoring the deep convection in the vicinity of mountains. These regions include, for example, the southern Great Plains in the United States, where moist air from the Gulf of Mexico is typically capped by hot dry air from the Mexican plateau (Carlson et al. 1983); the low plain of Argentina, where the low-level jet from the Amazon transports moist air capped by warm, dry air off the Andes (Romatschke and Houze 2010; Rasmussen and Houze 2011, 2016); and north India and Pakistan, where warm, dry air from Afghanistan or the Tibetan Plateau often caps the moist air from the Bay of Bengal or the Arabian Sea (Houze et al. 2007). This capping inversion inhibits the release of instability. Then, the forced ascent of impinging flow, topographical lift, or strong sensible heating could initiate deep convection.

Figure 7 shows the composite of near-surface wind fields. The red dots mark the locations of the OPFs in each category. The low-level wind field exhibits an abrupt change while crossing the southern mountains, which is consistent with the results shown in previous studies that show the topography could modify the baroclinic waves (Davis 1997; Schultz and Doswell 2000). Most of the OPFs under a deep trough scenario are associated with southerly flow near the surface and are found in the valley surrounded by high terrain (Fig. 7a). Examination of individual large-scale environments for each OPF shows that overshooting convection is mostly ahead of a trough, which may provide sufficient lifting to trigger the convection. OPFs associated with cutoff lows are relatively uniformly distributed around the center of the cutoff low (Fig. 7b). This is because the troposphere below the cutoff lows is usually unstable and is favorable for convection when the low-level southerly moist flow transports moisture to this region. Nieto et al. (2008) have shown that convective rainfall could occur within a radius of about 300 km of the cutoff low center, with a peak close to the cutoff low’s center. The locations of OPFs occurring under the ridge conditions are mostly near mountain slopes, as shown in Fig. 7c, with a strong southerly flow.

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Earth Overshoot Day marks the date when demand for Earth’s ecological resources exceeds what the planet can regenerate. This year, the date is July 29.

“How long can you use 70% more than Earth can renew?” Wackernagel asked. ”You can use more than your interest payment for some time, but it reduces the asset base. And what we see as a consequence, for example, is the accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere or deforestation.”

The Global Footprint Network estimated carbon emissions in 2021 will be 4.8% higher than 2020, but it will still be below 2019 levels, when the overshoot date was July 26.

“It"s a question whether we do it by design or disaster,” Wackernagel said. “All of the global downturns are associated with disaster rather than design, like oil crises, financial crises, pandemic. They have pushed us down, and eventually, it will push us down if we don"t do it ourselves. We can choose a comfortable path, or we will be hit by crises.”

According to an analysis by the Global Footprint Network and Schneider Electric, retrofitting existing buildings to be more energy efficient and decarbonizing electricity could move the day back 21 days. If everyone in the world decreased their meat consumption by 50%, the date could be pushed back 17 days.