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Jan 14 (Reuters) - China will release crude oil from its national strategic stockpiles around the Lunar New Year holidays that start on Feb. 1 as part of a plan coordinated by the United States with other major consumers to reduce global prices, sources told Reuters.

The sources, who have knowledge of talks between the world"s top two crude consumers, said China agreed in late 2021 to release an unspecified amount of oil depending on price levels.

"China agreed to release a relatively bigger amount if oil is above $85 a barrel, and a smaller volume if oil stays near the $75 level," said one source, without elaborating.

The release of crude stocks by China will occur around the Lunar New Year, the sources said. China will be closed for the biggest annual holiday from Jan. 31 to Feb. 6.

The agreed release of reserves by China is the result of a series of discussions, reported by Reuters in November, that the Biden administration held with other major oil consumers after tight supplies drove global oil prices to multi-year highs.

Biden and top aides discussed the possibility of a coordinated release of crude stocks with close allies including Japan, South Korea and India, as well as with China.

China, which has long kept details on its state reserves a secret, conducted last September its first-ever public crude reserves auction of about 7.4 million barrels, about half a day"s consumption in the country.

Oil prices rebounded above $80 a barrel this week buoyed by supply disruptions in Libya and Kazakhstan, a fall in U.S. crude inventories to their lowest since 2018, and an improvement in the outlook for fuel demand in Europe as governments there ease COVID-19 restrictions.

President Biden wants Americans to know gas prices are falling fast—and he deserves the credit. The average pump price has plunged from $5 per gallon in June to around $3.25 now.Biden says it’s because he released oil from the national reserve, persuaded petrostates to produce more, and convinced oil and gas companies to lower prices.

Nope. The single-biggest reason for falling oil and gas prices is China’s baffling COVID lockdowns. China is the world’s largest energy consumer and second-largest consumer of oil, and widespread COVID lockdowns have cut into Chinese energy demand. China’s economy is growing at a weak 3.9% annualized rate, compared with 6% before the COVID pandemic struck in 2020. During the second quarter, China’s GDP growth almost turned negative.

The economy is sputtering mainly because China is struggling against COVID more than any advanced nation. Its domestically made vaccines aren’t as effective as those used in the West, and China has a low vaccination rate to start with. There’s a nationwide shortage of hospital beds, which means people getting severe COVID cases might die for lack of treatment. President Xi Jinping sems to prefer a softening economy caused by strict stay-home orders to the risk of a massive COVID death toll.

Chinese oil imports are on track to drop by about 2% this year, with other energy purchases falling by more, according to S&P Global Commodities. “China’s COVID policy is the most important fundamental factor for energy markets,” S&P said in a recent report. “Weaker Chinese energy imports was a key safety valve for oil, gas and coal markets in 2022. Were it not for this demand weakness, prices of all commodities would have undoubtedly been higher.”

China’s energy demand has been below average all year. Yet oil prices spiked in the first half of 2022 due to a “fear premium” caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and worries that sanctions on Russia would cause shortages. That hasn’t happened, easing pressure on prices in the second half of 2022. Gasoline and oil prices are roughly where they were a year ago, before Russia invaded Ukraine.

A key question affecting American drivers is when China will emerge from its COVID slump, and start to import more energy. Surprisingly robust anti-lockdown protests in China led the communist government to ease some COVID-related restrictions in early December. But that may be largely for show. Capital Economics thinks China’s zero-COVID policy may last until 2024. “China is in no place right now to move away from zero-Covid to living with COVID,” Mark Williams, chief Asia economist at Capital Economics, said during a recent briefing. “It’s going to be quite some time before they get their vaccination rate up to where they can relax.”

China could also emerge in phases, with business activity bouncing back before consumers are free to roam about the country. S&P thinks China’s energy imports will grow again in 2023, with commodities prices “well-supported.” That means, higher.

Tightening oil production around the world means prices may never again hit the bargain-basement levels of 2020. How high they will go in 2023 depends not just on Chinese demand, but on whether slowdowns in Europe and the United States become recessions with rising unemployment and declining demand. If that happens, oil prices could stay where they are, around $72, or go lower.

Prices will be higher if the U.S. and Europe narrowly avert recessions and China snaps out of its COVID malaise. There"s also a chance Russian oil exports could decline due to new sanctions that will get tighter still in three months. Citibank thinks U.S. crude prices will average a modest $75 per barrel in 2023. Bank of America thinks crude could rise to as high as $110. If there"s any lesson for drivers, it"s probably enjoy the dips but don"t get used to them.

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February, many countries around the world have had to contend with mounting energy bills, sparked by sudden cutoffs in Russian oil and natural gas shipments abroad. Countries have resorted to energy rationing and stockpilingreserves ahead of winter, when energy demand is highest.

So far, they have largely been successful in their efforts. Europe, at high risk of an energy crisis due to its elevated reliance on Russian oil and gas prior to the war, was declared “off the hook” this winter by IEA chief Fatih Birol on Monday as the continent has benefited from a mild winter so far.

But if Europe manages to avoid a severe energy crisis this winter, it is also because of China’s weak energy demand and sluggish economy this year due to the country’s zero-COVID policy. China’s commitment to eradicating COVID has been a safety net in 2022 for European governments, but as the country eyes a wider reopening in 2023, that safety net may be gone soon enough.

China’s total energy demand is forecasted to increase by the equivalent of 3.3 million barrels of oil a day next year, up from basically no growth in 2022, according to S&P Global’s latest energy outlook report out on Monday. This would represent 47% of all global energy demand growth next year.

“Demand softness due to lockdowns in 2022 was a key safety valve for oil, gas, and coal markets, while Europe scrambled to replace Russian energy,” Dan Klein, head of Energy Pathways at S&P Global Commodity Insights, said in a statement.

“With another year of vaccinations and growing frustrations with lockdowns domestically in China, restrictions will likely ease somewhat in 2023 and imports of fossil fuels can be expected to increase again,” he added.

After years of continuous growth, 2022 saw China’s electricity consumption fall for the first time in years as many factories lay idle due to lockdowns and slower economic activity overall.

Cumulative LNG imports to China were down 20.2% for the first nine months of 2022 compared to the same period last year, according to customs data, and Europe has taken full advantage of the available supply. Over the summer, China was even reselling its excess liquified natural gas to Europe due to weak demand at home.

“Were it not for this demand weakness, prices of all commodities would have undoubtedly been higher, as energy supply not absorbed by China shifted to other areas, highlighted by LNG supply shifting to Europe,” according to S&P’s report.

But with winter on the way and its economy seemingly waking up from its slumber, Europe may not be able to count on weak energy demand in China for much longer.

In October, China halted its LNG resales abroad to shore up its own energy supply ahead of winter. But the real reversal in China’s energy demand outlook in 2023 may have occurred earlier this month, when the Chinese government began slowly undoing the COVID-19 protocols that have been holding back the country’s economy since the pandemic began.

This month, some cities in China have been taking steps to soften COVID testing requirements and quarantine rules in response to nationwide protests criticizing lockdowns and expectations of stagnating economic growth. Policies now being scrapped include mass city-wide testing in the event of high caseloads, hospitalization and quarantine requirements for those with mild or no symptoms, and widespread lockdowns preventing movement and restricting business operations outside of a designated high-risk area.

Despite mounting new COVID-19 caseloads in China, the country could continue loosening its zero-COVID policy in 2023, in which case energy usage is expected to return to a “growth pathway,” according to S&P, with important ramifications for global energy markets that have benefited from China’s weak demand this year.

In Europe, meanwhile, the outlook for 2023 is becoming increasingly dim. While the continent has been able to skate past the worst of an energy crisis this year, everyone from international organizations including the IMF and the OECD to J.P. Morgan Change CEO Jamie Dimon have warned the real battle isn’t this year, it’s for the autumn and winter of 2023, when Russian natural gas supply will be even more limited and competition from China heats up.

“European gas and power markets may be even tighter in 2023” amid contracting Russian supply, S&P warned. The report also cautioned European buyers not to rely on a recurrence of weak LNG demand from Asia, while reiterating that China’s reopening plan will continue to be the driving force behind global energy demand next year.

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