china oil safety valve pricelist

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In the past few weeks the oil market has been witnessing great volatility, as the quivers of the U.S.-China trade war once again hit the fragile market.

Last week, oil prices experienced the sharpest drop this year as concerns over a global economic slowdown caused by the China-U.S. trade spat once again permeated the markets.

High oil prices are not in line with the policies of the Trump administration so maintaining a balance between the oil prices driving factors and the deterrent ones, has been for long, a great headache for the white house and China has played the major weighting role which has come to rescue Trump whenever his decisions push the prices in the white house’s opposite direction.

Considering the great worries that is spreading across the markets all around the world, it seems wise to ask, is the trade war really as concerning as it sounds? Or maybe Trump’s sudden outrageous clashes with China is all part of a conspiracy plan to keep the oil prices in a safe zone?

Since the beginning of 2019, several factors have been constantly pointed out as big influencers in the oil market, among which the trade war between U.S. and China, the tensions in the Middle East, OPEC+ deal, supply disruptions in OPEC and non-OPEC nations like Libya, shale oil productions and most importantly the U.S. President Tramp’s constant interferes with the market, can be mentioned.

Some of the above mentioned factors have been supporters of the oil prices and some are pushing them down. The tensions in the Middle East, supply disruptions and OPEC+ production cut deal are three main drivers of the oil prices while the trade war and rising shale production are two major heavy weighs which are keeping the prices down.

One of the major policies that the Trump administration has been following, is to keep the oil prices down and that is in significant contrast with some other major policies of the white house. Washington has been constantly pushing to impose more and more pressure on Iran and Venezuela using oil as the main leverage.

In late April, Trump administration announced that Washington is going to sharply accelerate its efforts to drive Iran’s oil exports to zero, ending sanctions waivers that were previously granted to some of the Islamic Republic’s biggest customers.

On the other hand, defying Trump’s will for leaving the cuts deal, Saudi Arabia has been constantly stating that it will be committed to a balanced and sustainable oil market.

Contrasting OPEC+ efforts U.S. shale production has been reported to be rising significantly in the past few years so that just recently the U.S. was crowned to be the world’s top oil producer. The over follow of U.S. oil into the market has been for long one of the major factors that contributed to the oversupply in the market and consequently lowered the oil prices.

Many believe that considering Trump’s disruptive nature, the U.S.-China trade spat is developing into a more complex strategic dispute between the world’s two largest economies, however I believe the current situation is all temporary and as soon as Trump reaches its goals in the Middle East, the dispute with China will also be relieved significantly.

It is obvious that the concurrent happening of two opposite scenarios which are greatly influential in the oil market cannot be a coincident. And the U.S. president’s on and off outbreaks with China is just a way of making sure to have a “safety valve” in case of overpressure in the market.

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February, many countries around the world have had to contend with mounting energy bills, sparked by sudden cutoffs in Russian oil and natural gas shipments abroad. Countries have resorted to energy rationing and stockpilingreserves ahead of winter, when energy demand is highest.

So far, they have largely been successful in their efforts. Europe, at high risk of an energy crisis due to its elevated reliance on Russian oil and gas prior to the war, was declared “off the hook” this winter by IEA chief Fatih Birol on Monday as the continent has benefited from a mild winter so far.

But if Europe manages to avoid a severe energy crisis this winter, it is also because of China’s weak energy demand and sluggish economy this year due to the country’s zero-COVID policy. China’s commitment to eradicating COVID has been a safety net in 2022 for European governments, but as the country eyes a wider reopening in 2023, that safety net may be gone soon enough.

China’s total energy demand is forecasted to increase by the equivalent of 3.3 million barrels of oil a day next year, up from basically no growth in 2022, according to S&P Global’s latest energy outlook report out on Monday. This would represent 47% of all global energy demand growth next year.

“Demand softness due to lockdowns in 2022 was a key safety valve for oil, gas, and coal markets, while Europe scrambled to replace Russian energy,” Dan Klein, head of Energy Pathways at S&P Global Commodity Insights, said in a statement.

“With another year of vaccinations and growing frustrations with lockdowns domestically in China, restrictions will likely ease somewhat in 2023 and imports of fossil fuels can be expected to increase again,” he added.

After years of continuous growth, 2022 saw China’s electricity consumption fall for the first time in years as many factories lay idle due to lockdowns and slower economic activity overall.

Cumulative LNG imports to China were down 20.2% for the first nine months of 2022 compared to the same period last year, according to customs data, and Europe has taken full advantage of the available supply. Over the summer, China was even reselling its excess liquified natural gas to Europe due to weak demand at home.

“Were it not for this demand weakness, prices of all commodities would have undoubtedly been higher, as energy supply not absorbed by China shifted to other areas, highlighted by LNG supply shifting to Europe,” according to S&P’s report.

But with winter on the way and its economy seemingly waking up from its slumber, Europe may not be able to count on weak energy demand in China for much longer.

In October, China halted its LNG resales abroad to shore up its own energy supply ahead of winter. But the real reversal in China’s energy demand outlook in 2023 may have occurred earlier this month, when the Chinese government began slowly undoing the COVID-19 protocols that have been holding back the country’s economy since the pandemic began.

This month, some cities in China have been taking steps to soften COVID testing requirements and quarantine rules in response to nationwide protests criticizing lockdowns and expectations of stagnating economic growth. Policies now being scrapped include mass city-wide testing in the event of high caseloads, hospitalization and quarantine requirements for those with mild or no symptoms, and widespread lockdowns preventing movement and restricting business operations outside of a designated high-risk area.

Despite mounting new COVID-19 caseloads in China, the country could continue loosening its zero-COVID policy in 2023, in which case energy usage is expected to return to a “growth pathway,” according to S&P, with important ramifications for global energy markets that have benefited from China’s weak demand this year.

In Europe, meanwhile, the outlook for 2023 is becoming increasingly dim. While the continent has been able to skate past the worst of an energy crisis this year, everyone from international organizations including the IMF and the OECD to J.P. Morgan Change CEO Jamie Dimon have warned the real battle isn’t this year, it’s for the autumn and winter of 2023, when Russian natural gas supply will be even more limited and competition from China heats up.

“European gas and power markets may be even tighter in 2023” amid contracting Russian supply, S&P warned. The report also cautioned European buyers not to rely on a recurrence of weak LNG demand from Asia, while reiterating that China’s reopening plan will continue to be the driving force behind global energy demand next year.

Our company has been awarded such honors as High & New Tech Enterprise, Key Enterprise in National Torch Planning Project, Famous Trademark in ZheJiang Province, Famous Brand Product in ZheJiang Province, Special Valve R&D Center in ZheJiang Province, Deputy Director Member of China Valve Association, National Valve Standards Setter. We have obtained most international certificates like DNV ISO9001:2008,ISO14001:2004,OHSAS 18001:2007Certificates, Our products designed and manufactured according to API standard,Ball valve with fire safe certificates API 607,API 6Fa.as well as TUV Germany Rhine Company CE Certificate and Pressure Pipe Fittings Manufacturing License TS Safety Certificate issued by the State Bureau of Quality and Technical Supervision, and the certificates from Russian GOST-R, RTN. Our company is the approved vendor of China National Petroleum Corporation(CNPC), China National Offshore Oil Corporation(CNOOC), SINOPEC, China Aluminum Group Corporation, China National Chemical Equipment Corporation, China Gas, Beijing Gas and also the supplier of international Oil Gas company like BP,Gazprom,LUKOIL, EIL, PDO, GE Oil & Gas, SABIC, SWCC, SAUDI MA"ADEN,Ecopetrol.

WuZhou Valve is also the exclusive supplier of high pressure large-diameter fully welded ball valves designated by the National Energy Administration, National Development and Reform Commission and PetroChina, and, our products have been widely applied in Phase 2 and 3 in the project of Natural Gas Transmission from West to East China.

Our company produces 10 major series of products totaling 1,200 varieties and specifications of high temperature, high pressure, high wear resistant, and large-diameter ball valves, gate valves, butterfly valves, gate valves, globe valves, check valves, ore slurry valves, power station valves, as well as non-standard and special valves with auxiliary devices for petroleum, chemical industry, metallurgy, light industry, coal chemical industry, power station, urban construction, water supply, oil, gas and natural gas transportation, long transportation pipeline and other projects. Nominal diameter DN10~4500mm(1/2"~64"), nominal pressure 1.6MPa ~ 42Mpa(150Lb ~ 2,500Lb), working temperature -196℃ ~ 750℃. Valve materials: carbon steel, stainless steel, heat resistant alloy steel, Monel, low temperature steel, and other special types of steel. Driving modes include manual, electric, pneumatic, gear transmission, worm gear and worm transmission, pneumatic and hydraulic combined, electric and hydraulic combined, and computer programmed control system. The products sell well throughout China and are exported to USA, Europe, Africa, the Middle East, Singapore, and other places in the world. By insisting on the corporate policy of Quality First, Customer Foremost, and Credibility-based, seeking the goal of “Three Merits” of Usability, Creditability, and Reliability, and establishing the first class brand of “WuZhou”, our company will make further contributions to the economic development of China and other countries with high quality products, favorable prices and excellent services.

“China’s COVID policy will be the top issue in energy markets,” said Dan Klein, head of energy pathways with the company. Near-zero growth in energy demand in 2022 due to COVID lockdowns served as a safety valve for oil, natural gas, and coal markets as Europe sought to replace Russian energy supplies, he said.

But that will likely change in 2023 as China eases its COVID protocols, leading to a surge in its energy demand to 3.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, representing 47% of global energy demand growth in the coming year, Klein said.

“Pent-up demand is set to be unleashed,” he cautioned. He added that India will also play a key role with its rising demand for oil and its purchase of significant amounts of Russian supply that otherwise would have gone to Europe.

It’s clear the nation’s shale oil and gas producers are operating differently than a decade ago but “ignore the resource of shale at your peril,” he said.

The forecast is for the growth of 500,000 to 600,000 barrels of crude and natural gas liquids in 2023. That growth is still relatively robust, he added, though producers are clearly listening to calls for fiscal discipline by not ramping up activity. Still, he said, oil prices remain well above break-even levels of $50 per barrel, and, he noted, over 90% of the 180 billion barrels of technically producible oil has yet to be developed.

S&P Global forecasts U.S. shale oil supply will grow about 700,000 barrels a day in 2023, but global oil supplies in 2023 will center on Russia and how the rest of the world adapts to European Union sanctions and Group of Seven restrictions in reaction to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, said Shin Kim, head of oil supply and production analytics.

Energy policy uncertainty will be the largest influence on the direction of oil supply in 2023, said Paul Sheldon, chief geopolitical advisor, led by the sanctions on Russian oil exports. How those sanctions take form and how Russia reacts will be key, he said.

“An outsized supply disruption from the world’s second-largest oil exporter would test the limits of the world’s spare capacity, while a relatively muted dislocation would trigger politically complicated OPEC+ production cuts,” Sheldon said.

WASHINGTON, Nov 23 (Reuters) - The administration of U.S. President Joe Biden announced on Tuesday it will release millions of barrels of oil from strategic reserves in coordination with China, India, South Korea, Japan and Britain, to try to cool prices after OPEC+ producers repeatedly ignored calls for more crude.

Biden, facing low approval ratings and accelerating inflation ahead of next year"s congressional elections, has grown frustrated at repeatedly asking the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, to pump more oil without any response.

"It will take time, but before long you should see the price of gas drop where you fill up your tank, and in the longer-term we will reduce our reliance on oil as we shift to clean energy," he said.

Crude oil prices recently touched seven-year highs, and consumers are feeling the pain. Retail gasoline prices are up more than 60% in the last year, the fastest rate of increase since 2000, largely because people have returned to the roads as pandemic-induced restrictions have eased.

Under the plan, the United States will release 50 million barrels, the equivalent of about two and a half days of U.S. demand. India, meanwhile, said it would release 5 million barrels, while Britain said it would allow the voluntary release of 1.5 million barrels of oil from privately held reserves.

Japan will release "a few hundred thousand kilolitres" of oil from its national reserve, but the timing of the sale has not been decided, industry minister Koichi Hagiuda told reporters on Wednesday. read more

Earlier the Nikkei newspaper reported that Japan will release about 4.2 million barrels of oil (666,666 kilolitres) or about 1 or 2 days" worth of its demand. A Japanese refining source said it has already bought oil for processing in February 2022. read more

China, the world"s largest crude importer, remains non-committal, though it has taken steps this year to cool price rises of other commodities in its domestic market. Beijing will release crude oil from its reserves according to its needs, a foreign ministry spokesman said on Wednesday. read more

"As a result, the Biden administration will have to turn to China again. This is a direction that benefits everyone, but China clearly has the upper hand," the state-backed Global Times said in an editorial. read more

[1/5]A maze of crude oil pipes and valves is pictured during a tour by the Department of Energy at the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in Freeport, Texas, U.S. June 9, 2016. REUTERS/Richard Carson

Recent high oil prices have been caused by a sharp rebound in global demand, which cratered early in the pandemic in 2021, and analysts have said that releasing reserves may not be enough to curb further rises.

In 2021, the global safety valve market decreased by -5.8% to $X for the first time since 2018, thus ending a two-year rising trend. Over the period under review, consumption continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, consumption reached the peak level of $X, and then contracted in the following year.

In value terms, safety valve production contracted to $X in 2021 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 25%. As a result, production attained the peak level of $X. From 2018 to 2021, global production growth remained at a somewhat lower figure.

In 2021, shipments abroad of safety or relief valves for pipes, boiler shells, tanks and vats increased by 16% to X units, rising for the second year in a row after two years of decline. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.5% from 2012 to 2021; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2020 when exports increased by 21%. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the peak figure in 2021 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

In value terms, safety valve exports rose remarkably to $X in 2021. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% from 2012 to 2021; however, the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2013 when exports increased by 21%. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs at $X in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2021, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In 2021, the United States (18M units), China (17M units), Germany (11M units), Italy (11M units), Mexico (8.8M units), Romania (6.7M units), Japan (4.8M units), Taiwan (Chinese) (3.9M units), France (3.9M units), the UK (3.7M units), the Czech Republic (3.6M units) and Turkey (3.1M units) was the major exporter of safety or relief valves for pipes, boiler shells, tanks and vats in the world, committing 73% of total export. Thailand (3M units) took a relatively small share of total exports.

In value terms, the largest safety valve supplying countries worldwide were the United States ($X), Germany ($X) and Japan ($X), together accounting for 44% of global exports. Italy, China, the UK, Mexico, France, Romania, Taiwan (Chinese), the Czech Republic, Turkey and Thailand lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 29%.

In 2021, the average safety valve export price amounted to $X per unit, shrinking by -8% against the previous year. In general, the export price showed a perceptible curtailment. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 an increase of 7.9% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices reached the maximum at $X per unit in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2021, the export prices failed to regain momentum.

In 2021, overseas purchases of safety or relief valves for pipes, boiler shells, tanks and vats increased by 26% to X units, rising for the fifth year in a row after two years of decline. Overall, total imports indicated buoyant growth from 2012 to 2021: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +6.2% over the last nine-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2021 figures, imports increased by +66.2% against 2016 indices. As a result, imports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, safety valve imports rose remarkably to $X in 2021. In general, imports showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2013 with an increase of 10%. Global imports peaked at $X in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2021, imports remained at a lower figure.

In 2021, the United States (43M units) was the largest importer of safety or relief valves for pipes, boiler shells, tanks and vats, generating 24% of total imports. It was distantly followed by Germany (9.9M units), making up a 5.4% share of total imports. Mexico (7.9M units), China (7.8M units), France (6.4M units), Poland (5.9M units), Russia (5.8M units), Hungary (5.6M units), the Netherlands (5.1M units), Spain (4.9M units), Turkey (4.4M units), the UK (3.8M units) and Italy (3.4M units) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Imports into the United States increased at an average annual rate of +9.4% from 2012 to 2021. At the same time, Hungary (+23.6%), Turkey (+16.0%), Poland (+14.1%), Italy (+11.5%), France (+9.2%), the Netherlands (+7.7%), Spain (+5.0%), Germany (+4.8%), Russia (+4.6%), Mexico (+4.5%) and China (+2.0%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Hungary emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +23.6% from 2012-2021. The UK experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. The United States (+5.6 p.p.), Hungary (+2.3 p.p.) and Poland (+1.5 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global imports, while China saw its share reduced by -1.9% from 2012 to 2021, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, China ($X), the United States ($X) and Germany ($X) constituted the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2021, with a combined 26% share of global imports. These countries were followed by Mexico, the Netherlands, the UK, Turkey, France, Russia, Poland, Italy, Spain and Hungary, which together accounted for a further 23%.

In 2021, the average safety valve import price amounted to $X per unit, with a decrease of -13.8% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price recorded a pronounced setback. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2013 an increase of 6.6%. As a result, import price attained the peak level of $X per unit. From 2014 to 2021, the average import prices remained at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2021, the country with the highest price was China ($X per unit), while Hungary ($X per unit) was amongst the lowest.

After two years of growth, the East Asian safety valve market decreased by -15.1% to $X in 2021. Overall, consumption, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, consumption attained the peak level of $X, and then contracted dramatically in the following year.

In value terms, safety valve production shrank to $X in 2021 estimated in export price. In general, production showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 with an increase of 25%. Over the period under review, production reached the maximum level at $X in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2021, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In 2021, overseas shipments of safety or relief valves for pipes, boiler shells, tanks and vats were finally on the rise to reach X units after two years of decline. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.6% over the period from 2012 to 2021; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. As a result, the exports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, safety valve exports surged to $X in 2021. In general, exports, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, the exports attained the maximum at $X in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2021, the exports remained at a lower figure.

China was the key exporter of safety or relief valves for pipes, boiler shells, tanks and vats in Eastern Asia, with the volume of exports finishing at X units, which was near 60% of total exports in 2021. Japan (4.8M units) held the second position in the ranking, followed by Taiwan (Chinese) (3.9M units) and South Korea (2M units). All these countries together took approx. 38% share of total exports. Hong Kong SAR (479K units) followed a long way behind the leaders.

China was also the fastest-growing in terms of the safety or relief valves for pipes, boiler shells, tanks and vats exports, with a CAGR of +13.8% from 2012 to 2021. At the same time, Taiwan (Chinese) (+6.8%) and Hong Kong SAR (+2.2%) displayed positive paces of growth. By contrast, Japan (-5.0%) and South Korea (-15.4%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. China (+39 p.p.) and Taiwan (Chinese) (+5.1 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the total exports, while Japan and South Korea saw its share reduced by -14.3% and -29.4% from 2012 to 2021, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the largest safety valve supplying countries in Eastern Asia were Japan ($X), China ($X) and Taiwan (Chinese) ($X), with a combined 86% share of total exports. These countries were followed by South Korea and Hong Kong SAR, which together accounted for a further 14%.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2021, the country with the highest price was Japan ($X per unit), while China ($X per unit) was amongst the lowest.

After three years of decline, purchases abroad of safety or relief valves for pipes, boiler shells, tanks and vats increased by 25% to X units in 2021. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% over the period from 2012 to 2021; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 when imports increased by 27%. As a result, imports reached the peak of X units. From 2018 to 2021, the growth of imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, safety valve imports expanded rapidly to $X in 2021. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +2.8% over the period from 2012 to 2021; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 19% against the previous year. The level of import peaked in 2021 and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

China represented the largest importer of safety or relief valves for pipes, boiler shells, tanks and vats in Eastern Asia, with the volume of imports resulting at X units, which was approx. 58% of total imports in 2021. Japan (2.4M units) took an 18% share (based on physical terms) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by Taiwan (Chinese) (10%), South Korea (8.4%) and Hong Kong SAR (4.9%).

Imports into China increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% from 2012 to 2021. At the same time, Japan (+10.2%) and Hong Kong SAR (+5.9%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Japan emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in Eastern Asia, with a CAGR of +10.2% from 2012-2021. South Korea experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Taiwan (Chinese) (-3.8%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2012 to 2021, the share of Japan increased by +8.9 percentage points. South Korea (-2.4 p.p.) and Taiwan (Chinese) (-7.4 p.p.) saw their shares reduced. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, China ($X) constitutes the largest market for imported safety or relief valves for pipes, boiler shells, tanks and vats in Eastern Asia, comprising 64% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Japan ($X), with a 13% share of total imports. It was followed by South Korea, with a 10% share.

In China, safety valve imports increased at an average annual rate of +1.6% over the period from 2012-2021. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Japan (+7.6% per year) and South Korea (+0.4% per year).

President Biden wants Americans to know gas prices are falling fast—and he deserves the credit. The average pump price has plunged from $5 per gallon in June to around $3.25 now.Biden says it’s because he released oil from the national reserve, persuaded petrostates to produce more, and convinced oil and gas companies to lower prices.

Nope. The single-biggest reason for falling oil and gas prices is China’s baffling COVID lockdowns. China is the world’s largest energy consumer and second-largest consumer of oil, and widespread COVID lockdowns have cut into Chinese energy demand. China’s economy is growing at a weak 3.9% annualized rate, compared with 6% before the COVID pandemic struck in 2020. During the second quarter, China’s GDP growth almost turned negative.

The economy is sputtering mainly because China is struggling against COVID more than any advanced nation. Its domestically made vaccines aren’t as effective as those used in the West, and China has a low vaccination rate to start with. There’s a nationwide shortage of hospital beds, which means people getting severe COVID cases might die for lack of treatment. President Xi Jinping sems to prefer a softening economy caused by strict stay-home orders to the risk of a massive COVID death toll.

Chinese oil imports are on track to drop by about 2% this year, with other energy purchases falling by more, according to S&P Global Commodities. “China’s COVID policy is the most important fundamental factor for energy markets,” S&P said in a recent report. “Weaker Chinese energy imports was a key safety valve for oil, gas and coal markets in 2022. Were it not for this demand weakness, prices of all commodities would have undoubtedly been higher.”

China’s energy demand has been below average all year. Yet oil prices spiked in the first half of 2022 due to a “fear premium” caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and worries that sanctions on Russia would cause shortages. That hasn’t happened, easing pressure on prices in the second half of 2022. Gasoline and oil prices are roughly where they were a year ago, before Russia invaded Ukraine.

A key question affecting American drivers is when China will emerge from its COVID slump, and start to import more energy. Surprisingly robust anti-lockdown protests in China led the communist government to ease some COVID-related restrictions in early December. But that may be largely for show. Capital Economics thinks China’s zero-COVID policy may last until 2024. “China is in no place right now to move away from zero-Covid to living with COVID,” Mark Williams, chief Asia economist at Capital Economics, said during a recent briefing. “It’s going to be quite some time before they get their vaccination rate up to where they can relax.”

China could also emerge in phases, with business activity bouncing back before consumers are free to roam about the country. S&P thinks China’s energy imports will grow again in 2023, with commodities prices “well-supported.” That means, higher.

Tightening oil production around the world means prices may never again hit the bargain-basement levels of 2020. How high they will go in 2023 depends not just on Chinese demand, but on whether slowdowns in Europe and the United States become recessions with rising unemployment and declining demand. If that happens, oil prices could stay where they are, around $72, or go lower.

Prices will be higher if the U.S. and Europe narrowly avert recessions and China snaps out of its COVID malaise. There"s also a chance Russian oil exports could decline due to new sanctions that will get tighter still in three months. Citibank thinks U.S. crude prices will average a modest $75 per barrel in 2023. Bank of America thinks crude could rise to as high as $110. If there"s any lesson for drivers, it"s probably enjoy the dips but don"t get used to them.