overshot the puck in stock

PUZZLE LINKS: JPZ Download | Online Solver Bonus Tuesday puzzle for you, and it’s a guest acrostic by Twitch streamer extraordinaire and all-around great guy JibbyMAX! Jibby, what do you have to say? Hi everyone! I’m very excited to present my second ever acrostic [ed note: check out the first one here!]. I was inspired...

The Mylec Floor Hockey Puckis perfect for the indoor or outdoor hockey player. This lightweight puck is softer than the traditional roller hockey puck making it safer for youngsters as well as surrounding walls, vehicles, and etc. This Mylec puck can be used for floor hockey or roller hockey while the bright florescent color of the puck makes it easy to see when playing or when looking for a puck that overshot the net. The other advantage is that that this floor hockey puck won"t leave puck marks like a traditional roller or ice hockey puck would.Weight:2.0 oz

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Today is Earth Overshoot Day. Unfortunately, it’s nothing to celebrate. As of August 2, 2017, we have officially used up more natural resources than the Ea

Today is Earth Overshoot Day. Unfortunately, it’s nothing to celebrate. As of August 2, 2017, we have officially used up more natural resources than the Ea

There"s simply not a lot to like with the results, but that"s always the case closer to market bottoms than tops. That doesn"t mean we have to rally in2023, but just because there"s nothing positive to say doesn"t mean we have to keep going lower either. I am trying my best to keep an Open Mind.

December is in the books and it"s the 8th month where the indices have posted losses. The NASDAQ led the way by dropping 9% loss, and the Value versus Growth trade continued as the DJIA only lost 4% for the month. Every index along with the Aggregate Bond Fund (AGG) posted losses.

It was the same for the sectors, all of them were in the red. Yes, thatis correct, even Energy (XLE) lost 4% for the month. Healthcare (XLV) was spared any major selling losing 2.2% while Consumer Discretionary (XLY) got clobbered losing 11.7%. The sub-sector of Commodities (BCI) was crushed giving up all of its yearly gain, dropping an incredible 19%, sending it into the red for the year.

The fourth quarter ended and it is the only quarter where every major index except the NASDAQ posted a gain. Value was preferred in Q4 with the DJIA easily outperforming all of the indices with a 15+% gain. That was the beginning of the bifurcated market where Value was bought and Growth was sold.

Just when some thought the Energy trade was over, the sector (XLE) continued its winning way with a 21% gain, while commodities as measured by BCI went the other way by posting a 14+% loss for the quarter. Consumer Discretionary was the other sector posting a loss in Q4 dropping 9.4%. Financials, Healthcare, and Small-cap value all posted double-digit gains in the last 3 months of the year.

The year ended with the worst performance for equities since 2008. The equity market lost 10 Trillion in market cap this year. That is a hit to the wealth effect that will not go unnoticed as we enter the new year. Stocks weren"t alone in their demise, Bonds as measured by AGG suffered their worst return in history. The 10-year Treasury began the year at 1.6% and closed today at 3.86%. That explains a lot of the weaknesses in the markets.

All of the major indices posted a double-digit loss in "22 with the exception of the DJIA, which was down only 8.7% for the year. The S&P finished the year down 19.4% while the NASDAQ suffered a 33% decline. The semiconductor index was responsible for most of that weakness, losing 36% in 22.

As we have seen all year, Energy has been the place to be, and as the year ended it was the ONLY sector in the black with a 57.7% gain. Utilities were basically flat and Healthcare lost 3.5%. Everyone is talking about how badly Technology has been sold off, But Consumer Discretionary was down a whopping 37%, while Technology (XLK) closed the year off 29%.

2022 has been full of them, and this is yet another one of those crossroads moments. The Index can either break higher or lower form here and neither would be a huge surprise. What would be a surprise is a rip-roaring rally to start the new year. Then again with most analysts and research firms expecting a poor first half, anything is possible.

Market participants followed the Mick Jagger opening quote as they took this tax loss season to another level. As the week unfolded the market action started to remind me of the tax loss selling I saw during the 2008 Financial crisis. It was unrelenting for many stocks and one has to wonder when the selling abates to bring about a tradeable bounce. Every area of the market has been affected, and the well-known names are also included. Amazon (AMZN) is trading where it was during Covid. Apple (AAPL) is at June 2021 levels. The list goes on and on.

When I step back and think about this tax loss selling being so brutal there is no surprise - it should be. 2022 has been a nightmare and there are plenty of stocks where an investor can claim a loss for the year. I wish I knew some "rule" to use that told us when to buy these stocks but I do not. Sometimes, like this past January, we don"t see any bullish action in the beaten-down tax losers at all. At other times they seemingly come out of nowhere and take off. It"s not guaranteed that just because a stock is experiencing heavier-than-normal selling for tax reasons that it"s going to shoot higher once that selling pressure is removed.

I do lean toward a "bounce" in many of these names as we start the year for a variety of reasons. Of course, what I want and what the market does can be two very different things. Given some of the near-term positive catalysts I"m tracking, it will be more damning if stocks don"t rally soon and instead the S&P 500 breaks below its recent low. If that occurs, we"ll turn the page into 2023 and find it might be a sequel to this year.

Please allow me to take a moment and remind all of the readers of an important issue. I provide investment advice to clients and members of my marketplace service. Each week I strive to provide an investment backdrop that helps investors make their own decisions. In these types of forums, readers bring a host of situations and variables to the table when visiting these articles. Therefore it is impossible to pinpoint what may be right for each situation.

In different circumstances, I can determine each client"s situation/requirements and discuss issues with them when needed. That is impossible for readers of these articles. Therefore I will attempt to help form an opinion without crossing the line into specific advice. Please keep that in mind when forming your investment strategy.

China Tech (Alibaba) and Biotech have been the two least loved sectors in recent weeks, but we believe this is changing. As we always remind our listeners|viewers on our weekly podcast|videocast, "Opinion Follows Trend."

The last two weeks I went on Fox Business - The Claman Countdown - with Liz Claman, talking about our new position in Biotech. Thanks to Liz and Ellie Terrett for having me. In this most recent clip from Friday, we go into some detail on the thesis behind our purchases:

I know Liz is a hockey fan like me, so we want to skate where the puck is going. We were on the show in 2020 buying Banks and Energy stocks when no one wanted them. Now that they are all up double and triple, everyone wants them and it may be getting a little crowded in the near term.

While Exploration & Production names may push a bit higher as oil prices are elevated, one should beware that any type of Iran deal could add supply onto the market overnight. Saudi Aramco (ARMCO) just announced they are selling another $50B in stock for a reason. The Administration is incentivized to get something done with Iran in a mid-term election year as consumer confidence is joined at the hip with inflation. As prices have gone up, confidence numbers have come down. If you must put new money to work in energy, the servicers have lagged (OIH) and could play catch up as the rig count ticks up in coming months.

In the past week and a half, we started focusing on Biotech. Just as people are going back to work, they are also going back to the Doctor for checkups, treatments and procedures unrelated to COVID.

We looked at the earnings power of the top 30 holdings in the XBI (Equal Weight Biotech) ETF. Since November, the cumulative 2022 estimates have come down -0.41%, while the sector dropped over 37%. We think this dislocation is temporary as Valuations have fallen so much that there are about 100 biotech companies whose cash stockpiles exceed their stock-market values. Play basket XBI.

This quantitative study of where Biotech stocks are trading as a group (relative to their historic average multiple) implies the sector should appreciate: 24% - to get back to average Price to Book multiple

For my money, Cash Flow is the most important metric as that is the means a company has to return capital back to shareholders in the form of buybacks, dividends or accretive acquisitions.

It"s also important to note that just as multiples overshoot to the extreme on the downside, they also tend to overshoot in the euphoria on the upside - once they recover. In other words, they don"t return to their average multiple and stop! They will overshoot beyond that before settling out.

With Omicron winding down, just as people are going back to the office, they are also starting to go back to the Doctor for checkups, screenings and treatments. This - along with drug sales reps getting off Zoom and on the road - will lead to a significant uptick in scripts/demand.

The final catalyst will be M&A. Per the table below, the cash balance of Russell 3000 Health Care companies exceeds $500B. This is up ~400% in the past 20 years. With Big Pharma losing their patents on many blockbuster drugs, but having tons of cash on their balance sheets, they will be forced to aggressively buy innovation in the Biotech sector to maintain/accelerate growth.

The stock sold down meaningfully in the past week on fears that SoftBank (OTCPK:SFTBY) was blowing up and would have to sell off its largest position (Alibaba) - which represents ~25% of its holdings. Instead, Masayoshi Son came out and said: He would simply IPO Arm Holdings next year to raise cash (after the sale fell through with NVIDIA (NVDA)). SoftBank is getting a $2B breakup fee from NVIDIA. Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. shares jumped in Hong Kong as SoftBank Group Corp. said it wasn"t involved in the Chinese tech giant"s filing of additional American depositary shares, allaying investor fears that the firm"s largest shareholder might be looking to cash out. Shares in Alibaba had fallen earlier this week after the firm filed to register an additional one billion ADSs with the Securities and Exchange Commission. That triggered analyst speculation that SoftBank might look to dispose of some of its shares, particularly as it is seen to need cash to fund buybacks. SoftBank executives told analysts during a private post-results briefing Tuesday that they weren"t responsible for the share registration.

Over the same 7 years, while the business grew many multiples (~500-900% depending which metric you emphasize), the stock price gained zero percent. Zero, zilch, nada…

We are buying a business that has grown 5-9x (depending on metric) for the 2014 price it traded at before the growth. Even if top and bottom line growth rates halve from here (which they won"t), it is still a rare opportunity - in our view.

On Friday night, I joined Sean Callebs - on CGTN America"s Global Business show - to discuss the Jobs report and implications. Thanks to Ryan Gallagher and Sean for having me on:

Overall take on the number of jobs created in January… Overall, very good. The Establishment Survey is a survey of private nonfarm businesses, blew the doors off (+467K vs. +150K expected).

You will likely see some revisions to the headline number, but the economy is generally strong (~4% GDP est. for 2022) and the trend is UP as people go back to work (and Omicron winds down).

We are starting to see a shift from demand for goods to demand for services as omicron wanes. This will alleviate some pressure on the supply chain and start to bring down headline inflation.

Trucking jobs increased by 7500 - What does that say about supply chain disruptions? …and might that give us a clue about inflationary concerns in the coming months?

Transportation and warehousing increased by 54,000 (all component industries - including trucking - have now surpassed their February 2020 employment levels).

On Monday - after the close - I joined Mitch Hoch on Benzinga for a longer interview. We discussed the general Stock Market/Sentiment, Fed/Rate Hikes, Energy, Russia, Iran, Re-opening, Boeing, Disney and more! Thanks to Mitch for having me on. You"ll find (as usual) a non-consensus view regarding the headlines that most are currently worried about:

Recessions are preceded by an inversion of the Yield Curve (2/10 spread). While the curve has been flattening since June of last year, we are nowhere near inverting.

Sentiment washed out 2 Mondays Ago: AAII Bullish Percent hit 21% last week (lowest since 2020). AAII Bearish Percent hit 46.7% (highest since 2020). These levels usually occur near short-term bottoms.

CBOE Total Put/Call Ratio hit 1.26 that Monday - another extreme - meaning people were buying puts for protection at the exact wrong time. The time to buy insurance is BEFORE the fire, not after the house is leveled! This level is usually associated with reversals.

The one number to watch is Disney Plus net additions of subscribers. The Street is looking for 7 million. Disney came out in the preceding quarter with 2 million net additions to Disney Plus. Disney shares are ~down 17% since.

ENERGY We want to skate where the puck is going. We were out publicly in 2020 buying Banks and Energy stocks when no one wanted them. Now that they are all up double and triple, everyone wants them and it may be getting a little crowded in the near term.

While Exploration & Production names MAY push a bit higher as oil prices are elevated, one should beware that any type of Iran deal could add supply onto the market overnight. Saudi Aramco just announced they are selling another $50B in stock for a reason. The Administration is incentivized to get something done with Iran in a mid-term election year as consumer confidence is joined at the hip with inflation. As prices have gone up, confidence numbers have come down. If you must put new money to work in energy, the servicers have lagged and could play catch up as the rig count ticks up in coming months.

Best way to play is Boeing (BA). Will get recertification completed in China completed imminently and the orders will follow. Still down ~50% from pre-pandemic and operates in a duopoly.

The CNN "Fear and Greed" Index ticked up from 36 last week to 40 this week. There is still fear in the market. You can learn how this indicator is calculated and how it works here: (Video Explanation).

And finally, this week the NAAIM (National Association of Active Investment Managers Index) (Video Explanation) rose to 62.54% this week from 53.39% equity exposure last week. Managers will have to chase any strength in coming weeks.

If you’ve been finding that twisting fringes has been twisting your melon then I’ve put up a short “how-to” video showing how to twist fringes on handwoven items.

What better time of the year to weave that mohair blanket you’ve always thought about but have shied away from. If a project always takes you far longer than expected, get cracking on our Spring Stripes Mohair Blanket Kit. Even if it takes six months to complete, you’ll still be in time for those crisp spring days!

Taking its colour themes from Arthur Conan Doyle’s Sherlock Holmes, I present to you the Natty Sherlock Scarf Kit. Designed by Mavis MacMillan of Salt Spring Island using two of our silk yarns. Her striping sequence is based on three numbers from the Fibonacci number sequence.

If you bought your Spring Stripes Mohair Blanket Kit before you reached this section, I salute your impulsiveness. Now you’ll want to view the latest Online Guild episode, “Episode 9: Making a Mohair Blankie….. Yes!” which is available to Online Guild members now.

I think this episode is great but then I’m slightly biased, so don’t take my word for it have a look at what Online Guild members are saying about Episode 9.

Due to an overenthusiastic dyer, we have an overstock of 20/2 Birch Tussah Silk, so we’re having a flash sale of 20/2 Tussah Silk – Birch #30 until Monday Oct 22. If you’ve got a 20/2 Tussah Silk project that’s crying out for birch colour then strike while the iron’s hot, carpe diem, just do it, etc. Forget birch coloured bombyx silk, that’s sooooo last year.

A new product on our website was suggested by the lovely Susan. She’s getting her students started on weaving for which the Schacht Inkle Loom is ideal.

Recently, we had a long time customer and friend in the studio with a bummed out knee. Whilst discussing treadling with one leg a light bulb went on, “why don’t you try the Octado.” She did and it was an instant fit. Even if you’re just tired of climbing underneath your loom, or if it’s difficult to get up and down to change your tie-ups, have a look at the Louet Octado Loom.

Aeons ago (or maybe it was six months ago) we stocked the very popular Thread Count Magnifier; they practically flew off the shelves. We have just received a new shipment of twelve dozen of these little gems.

In their latest episode of the VALUE: After Hours Podcast, Morris, Taylor, and Carlisle discuss GMO: Deep Value Really Undervalued. Here’s an excerpt from the episode: Tobias: Do you want me to do the GMO paper? There’s just one interesting factoid from the paper that I just wanted to bring. … Read More

In their latest episode of the VALUE: After Hours Podcast, Morris, Taylor, and Carlisle discuss The Invisible Present. Here’s an excerpt from the episode: Jake: This one comes from, shoutout to my boy, Paul, in Ireland who sent me this article that’s from the Long Now Foundation, which we’ve done … Read More

In their latest episode of the VALUE: After Hours Podcast, Morris, Taylor, and Carlisle discuss The Genius Of Warren Buffett. Here’s an excerpt from the episode: Tobias: It’s interesting to watch someone like Buffett with Berkshire, because Berkshire has gone through lots of different cycles where it’s been loved and … Read More

In their latest episode of the VALUE: After Hours Podcast, Morris, Taylor, and Carlisle discuss 10-3 Steepest Ever. Here’s an excerpt from the episode: Tobias: This is not a whole topic, but the 10:3, the Treasury, the 10:3, either yesterday or Friday was the most inverted it’s been in the … Read More

In their latest episode of the VALUE: After Hours Podcast, Bill Brewster, Jake Taylor, and Tobias Carlisle discuss: 10-3 Steepest Ever GMO: Deep Value Really Undervalued Invisible Present The Genius Of Warren Buffett Every Generation Thinks Their ‘Latest Tech’ Will Last Forever Macro Investors Get Famous By Being Right Once … Read More

In their latest episode of the VALUE: After Hours Podcast, Brewster, Taylor, and Carlisle discuss SBF And FTX GTFO. Here’s an excerpt from the episode: Tobias: I didn’t really know who SBF was, this is Sam Bankman-Fried, and FTX. I didn’t know who this guy was probably three weeks ago. … Read More

In their latest episode of the VALUE: After Hours Podcast, Brewster, Taylor, and Carlisle discuss 10-3 Inversion and Recessions. Here’s an excerpt from the episode: Tobias: I like to check the 10:3 inversion every- Jake: Four minutes. [laughs] Tobias: -15 minutes or so. Jake: Yeah. Tobias: The 10:3, the most … Read More

In their latest episode of the VALUE: After Hours Podcast, Brewster, Taylor, and Carlisle discuss Cathie Wood Predicts Bitcoin To $1 Million By 2030. Here’s an excerpt from the episode: Tobias: Oh, the other thing was, I think this happened after the show, but Cathie Wood has called for bitcoin … Read More

In their latest episode of the VALUE: After Hours Podcast, Brewster, Taylor, and Carlisle discuss the Journalytic Launch. Here’s an excerpt from the episode: Tobias: JT, you want to you want to take us away on the Journalytic journey? Jake: Yes, please. So, yeah, today– [crosstalk] Tobias: What is Journalytic? Jake: Well, … Read More

In their latest episode of the VALUE: After Hours Podcast, Bill Brewster, Jake Taylor, and Tobias Carlisle discuss: Journalytic Launch Cathie Wood Predicts Bitcoin To $1 Million By 2030 10-3 Inversion and Recessions SBF And FTX GTFO No Bear Market Ends Before The Associated Recession Has Begun Demographics Look Bad … Read More

In their latest episode of the VALUE: After Hours Podcast, Brewster, Taylor, and Carlisle discuss Value’s Cheap. Here’s an excerpt from the episode: Tobias: I got another EV/EBIT ratio update for you. Jake: Okay. How spread are we yet? Tobias: We are off from the highs, which was last month. … Read More

In their latest episode of the VALUE: After Hours Podcast, Brewster, Taylor, and Carlisle discuss Tesla Needs To Justify Valuation. Here’s an excerpt from the episode: Tobias: Yeah, there’s a lot of dip buyers out there. Actually, there’s some sad threads on Tesla. When I go through and have a … Read More

In their latest episode of the VALUE: After Hours Podcast, Brewster, Taylor, and Carlisle discuss Apoptosis – Build A Kill Criteria Into Your Investments. Here’s an excerpt from the episode: Jake: Have you guys heard of the term ‘apoptosis’ before? Tobias: All I know is that the mitochondria is the … Read More

In their latest episode of the VALUE: After Hours Podcast, Brewster, Taylor, and Carlisle discuss Alameda Promised High Returns With No Risk. Here’s an excerpt from the episode: Tobias: Do you want me to do FTX? [crosstalk] Bill: Yeah, let’s do it. Let’s go into fraud. Tobias: I had to … Read More

In their latest episode of the VALUE: After Hours Podcast, Bill Brewster, Jake Taylor, and Tobias Carlisle discuss: Alameda Promised High Returns With No Risk Apoptosis – Build A Kill Criteria Into Your Investments Tesla Would Need To Own Entire Car Market To Justify Its Valuation Value’s Cheap Buffett Index … Read More

In their latest episode of the VALUE: After Hours Podcast, Brewster, Taylor, and Carlisle discuss The Diverse Nature Of Berkshire’s Stock Picks. Here’s an excerpt from the episode: Tobias: I love when Buffett comes behind me picking up my trash like HPQ, LPX. Jake: [laughs] Bill: [crosstalk] Oh, did you … Read More

In their latest episode of the VALUE: After Hours Podcast, Brewster, Taylor, and Carlisle discuss Investing Lessons From Formula 1. Here’s an excerpt from the episode: Jake: [laughs] Yeah, that’s not as much as it seems. All right. We’re going to be talking about the 1998 Hungarian Grand Prix F1 … Read More

In their latest episode of the VALUE: After Hours Podcast, Brewster, Taylor, and Carlisle discuss Fortune Favors The Brave. Here’s an excerpt from the episode: Tobias: Just that you know that line, “Fortune favors the brave”? So, this is something that I put this in my book before Matt Damon … Read More

In their latest episode of the VALUE: After Hours Podcast, Brewster, Taylor, and Carlisle discuss Todd Combs on Buffett & Munger. Here’s an excerpt from the episode: Bill: We were talking, Jake, about the Wechsler interview or wasn’t it Todd? Who was that? Jake: Combs. Todd Combs. Bill: Yeah, Combs. … Read More

In their latest episode of the VALUE: After Hours Podcast, Bill Brewster, Jake Taylor, and Tobias Carlisle discuss: Todd Combs Provides Insights Into Buffett & Munger Fortune Favors The Brave Investing Lessons From Formula 1 The Diverse Nature Of Berkshire’s Stock Picks Chris Hohn Goes Activist On Google Mass Layoffs … Read More

No, your variation between shot #2 and #3 is too inconsistent. Generally for me, out of say 3 or 4 nearly consecutive shots, they will all be within 3-5% weight per same time unless I screwed up puck prep. And, again out of the same 3 or 4 shots, most often one will be bullseye taste and the remaining shots are maybe 2nd ring out from bullseye; close but not identical. I rack it up to dealing with differences in a product of nature, roasting, resting, bean blending, etc.

What do you mean by "Closing lever when I see 28G or I overshoot"? I just pull the espresso cup when the desired target time weight is achieved on a spring lever machine.

And, have you tried a different beans/bean blend with different roast profile than what you"re using? Again, not to beat a dead horse but I very seldom am pulling beans at 22+ days old save for especially high density, lightly roasted beans that more often than not need more rest time. I"m currently pulling a "medium" SO El Salvador honey process bean from Red Rock roasters in Albuquerque New Mexico, at 10-days and they are optimum. And light roast Ethiopian Wote Konga beans from Peregrine Coffee Roasters in Colorado also at 10-days and flows are very consistent and flavors are spot on. Having said all that your problem does seem to be more hardware related than bean related but I think we"re all at the "throwing mud on the wall to see what sticks" stage.

I have been using VST baskets, along with IMS baskets, for many years. Unless you are using a darker roast (generally darker beans require a coarser grind thereby taking up more space in the basket), I find 18gVST basket takes 18g of beans day in/day out. Although the shower screen imprint looks very good/great, I"d still try 18g dose especially if the beans you are pulling are "medium" roast level or lighter.